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Electric Car Sales Forecast to Rise in 2025, But UK Still Set to Miss Key Zero-Emission Target

We're predicting electric car sales in the UK will reach 440,000 in 2025, representing 24% of the total 1.84 million new car sales. This sounds like a lot however this figure would fall short of the UK government’s 2025 Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which aims for 28% of new car sales to be zero-emission vehicles.

Despite missing the mark on the ZEV target, our forecast signals a notable 4.4% increase in electric car market share compared to 2024, which saw EVs accounting for 19.6% of new car sales.

Key drivers of EV growth in the UK

  • Introduction of more affordable electric vehicle models

    The influx of smaller, cost-competitive EVs—particularly from new entrants like Chinese automakers—is expected to attract more buyers in 2025.

  • Advances in range and faster charging technology

    Improvements in battery technology are also making EVs more appealing, with longer driving ranges and improved charging times addressing "range anxiety," a longstanding barrier to widespread adoption.

  • Expansion of the UK's charging infrastructure

    Meanwhile, the UK’s charging network is growing rapidly, with an emphasis on installing more ultra-rapid chargers to improve convenience for EV drivers.

Our track record in EV forecasting

We have a solid track record predicting EV sales. It's been our New Year's hobby since 2020.

We base our forecasts on in-depth market analysis and proprietary modeling. We're now in our 6th year of sharing our annual prediction and insights on the opportunities and challenges in the UK’s transition to electric vehicles. In January 2024, we made our most accurate forecast yet of 380,000 new EV sales (the actual figure was 381,970). Our 2024 prediction of a 19% EV market share for the year was spot on, closer than the industry’s more optimistic estimate of 22%.

Here's how we've done in previous years (admittedly we were out a bit in 2022 and 2023 - forgive us our post-pandemic optimism!) :

Business incentives drive growth

but are private buyers being left out?

While businesses and fleets benefit from financial incentives, such as low Benefit in Kind (BIK) tax rates, private buyers have limited support. BIK rates, currently set at 2% until April 2025, will rise incrementally to 5% by April 2028. These low rates have fueled the popularity of salary sacrifice schemes, which can reduce the monthly cost of driving an EV by up to 40% for employees.

Businesses have clear financial incentives to switch to EVs, but there is a lack of similar measures for private motorists. While EVs have lower whole-life costs than petrol and diesel cars, the absence of grants or subsidies for consumers is holding back retail sales.

Adam Kemp / Partnerships Director at DriveElectric

Challenges for manufacturers meeting the ZEV mandate

We anticipate that the UK’s total car sales in 2025 will slightly lag behind some industry projections, partly due to manufacturers curbing petrol and diesel sales to meet ZEV mandate requirements. Although some manufacturers, like Tesla, are poised to exceed the 28% zero-emission target, others are expected to struggle due to limited EV model offerings. Non-compliance with the mandate could result in significant fines of £15,000 per non-compliant vehicle, though the government is exploring potential flexibilities for manufacturers.

Looking ahead

The growing popularity of EVs is driven not just by cost and environmental benefits but also by their superior driving experience, according to consumer feedback. As the UK works toward its Net Zero targets, the continued rise in EV adoption will be critical for reducing emissions and improving local air quality.

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